Shayne’s Super Bowl Pick!

Here it is, Super Bowl Achtundvierzig, Quarante-Huit, Erbgħin Tmienja, loSmaH chorgh, XLVIII or for you English types, 48. Sadly my final NFL column of the season. Alas, pitchers and catchers report in wa’maHcha’ days and I have been a seam-head since birth. Not that any of you give a rat’s neither regions about that, you’re here for one thing only!

My prediction right off the get go; Seattle 17 – Broncos 34. I know you Seahawk fans are going to get cranky and call me a homer, which I am, but I’ve been pretty damn good all year long picking against the spread. Right now I’m 8 : 248 in the regular season and 3 : 13 in the playoffs. So obviously I know what I’m talking about. Luckily most of the money I’ve laid down this year was on my very few winning choices so there’s that.

Anybody got five bucks I can bum?

On to the stats. This Sunday the Bronco’s will face the toughest defense they have played in two years. This year Denver has played the Chiefs defense ranked at #5, (end of regular season by points given up), the Patriots #10, Chargers #11, Ravens #12 and the Colts at #9. Denver went 5-3 against those teams racking up 223 points and averaging almost 32 points per those games. They were beaten by New England, Indy and San Diego. Let’s be very clear about this, I am fully aware that those defenses are not the same as Seattle’s. Those teams are not the NFC winning, Super Bowl going, Seahawks. Same as Seattle’s offense isn’t Denver’s offense, 189 regular season offensive points proves that. For those of you that care, Seattle’s defense has given up 168 fewer points than the Bronco’s did. These are the regular season stats.

Just as Euler’s equation brings out beauty, so does post-season stats. With both teams playing two games, Denver has given up 33 points, Seattle 32. The Broncos have given up 3.8 yards per rushing attempt and the vaunted Seattle defense has given up 5.0 yards per rushing attempt. Don’t forget that both San Diego and New England, for some bizarre reason, tried very hard to run the ball, over and over and over. Strange play calling but they didn’t ask me.

With Danny Trevathan and Terrance Knighton, ‘Hot Beef Sammich’, playing balls deep since Elway chewed their butts after the San Diego loss and rookie Sylvester Williams playing the last four games like he is a third year veteran. This post-season defense has dominated and with the ‘free agent signing of the year’, Shawn Phillips who leads BOTH teams in sacks, Wilson will be running. Question is, will he be running to the right or the left, big difference in that. Look for Champ Bailey getting a sack on a blitz when he rolls out the wrong way. All that being said, can the Bronco’s stop Marshal Lynch? The Beast is a stud of a back but he won’t break 100 rushing yards this game. With that being said, the Bronco’s leave a linebacker to spy on Wilson running out of the pocket and play man to man coverage except for the eight or nine snaps Percy Harvin takes in the game. Just as a matter of course, I’m taking Kayvon Webster to make a pick in this game. So with that, Denver wins the defensive struggle.

On the offensive side, the Broncos have given up 32 first downs and the Seahawks 41, with Denver getting 53 offensive first downs. This is the biggest telling stat of all, if the Broncos get anywhere near the median of those two numbers, they will blow out Seattle. That simple, if the Seahawks give up long drives and can’t substitute in the first two quarters, it’s over by halftime and I think it is. Hope so anyway, can’t have a beer until I know the game is over. SBMVP: Wes Welker. Just so I have it recorded, Mitch Unrein gets a touchdown. Double Dog Dare ya to take that bet