NFL Draft: Draft Bust Predictions

Have you taken time to see the new movie ‘Draft Day’ starring Kevin Costner? This fictional account of the activities of the NFL Draft has created some buzz this off season and is an entertaining anticipation of the upcoming real draft in May. However, the movie brings to light an interesting topic that surfaces with every NFL Draft: Who is a true player and who could be revealed as a ‘poser’ seeking a big payout on an NFL contract, but will become a financial liability?

In other words, which players in this 2014 draft class are likely to become an expensive bust for the team who signs them in the first round? There can be considerable speculation on this, however let’s take a look at three busts that we predict:

#1: Taylor Lewan, OT – Michigan

He is big and strong, and looks the part… but his tape is not as impressive as other candidates in the same draft class. We feel he is ranked way too high largely due to his size, and his playing skill is overrated. Additionally he has some off-field issues with charges of fighting and bullying, which his media response on camera to the allegations leaves some doubts about his character issues.

#2: Teddy Bridgewater, QB – Louisville

It is hard to make a call on QB’s in this draft, but of all the candidates in this class Bridgewater seems a bit overrated. He is thin in frame, has small hands and has struggled under pressure. When he has to scramble from the pocket, he is not very effective. What is this guy going to do when he is faced with NFL linebackers that can move 10X faster than at the collegiate level? The kid will likely get drafted in the 1st or 2nd round because he has a good work ethic, and can throw with accuracy, but in the end we think bust when he is placed in the fast lane of the NFL.

#3: Justin Gilbert, CB –Oklahoma State

Justin Gilbert will draw interest because he is a good athlete, and can run. He is a fine physical specimen if you want a track player. However, his playing style clearly shows him back off when tackles are needed. Quite often he waits those extra few seconds for his teammates to arrive, and lets them stop the runner. He may initially appear like a great pick at first and may shine in practice, but he is going to be revealed as too soft for the NFL is our prediction. He is highly overrated and analysts who rank him high are only looking at his running speed.

There are other players that we sit on the fence about, such as Johnny Manziel, QB – Texas A&M who could turn into a Ryan Leaf if he collapses into the party guy he was in college at times. On the flipside, he could become the next great Brett Favre with his unconventional style of play.

Other prospects that have had some work ethics arise are front runner Jadeveon Clowney, DE – South Carolina, who some former coaches has come out saying he has streaks of laziness in his workouts and Ha-Ha Clinton Dix, FS – Alabama who is small sized and plays too conservatively at times for the position.

It is always interesting to try to look forward, and study film and attempt to see into the future. Some of these players could become quite the reverse of what is expected, and there are always sleepers in every draft that become greater values than no one ever predicted prior to the draft. That is perhaps what makes this study so fascinating.

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